China Birth Rate: The Collapse (1978-2024)
China's birth rate has fallen to historic lows. The population began shrinking in 2022 for the first time since the Great Famine of 1961.
2024 Birth Rate
6.77‰
Record low
Peak (1987)
23.33‰
2024 Growth Rate
-0.99‰
Negative (shrinking)
First Negative Year
2022
Birth Rate vs Death Rate (1978-2024)
Red = Birth Rate · Gray = Death Rate · Green = Natural Growth Rate. Growth went negative in 2022.
| Year | Birth Rate (‰) | Death Rate (‰) | Natural Growth (‰) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | 18.25 | 6.25 | 12 |
| 1979 | 17.82 | 6.21 | 11.61 |
| 1980 | 18.21 | 6.34 | 11.87 |
| 1981 | 20.91 | 6.36 | 14.55 |
| 1982 | 22.28 | 6.6 | 15.68 |
| 1983 | 20.19 | 6.9 | 13.29 |
| 1984 | 19.9 | 6.82 | 13.08 |
| 1985 | 21.04 | 6.78 | 14.26 |
| 1986 | 22.43 | 6.86 | 15.57 |
| 1987 | 23.33 | 6.72 | 16.61 |
| 1988 | 22.37 | 6.64 | 15.73 |
| 1989 | 21.58 | 6.54 | 15.04 |
| 1990 | 21.06 | 6.67 | 14.39 |
| 1991 | 19.68 | 6.7 | 12.98 |
| 1992 | 18.24 | 6.64 | 11.6 |
| 1993 | 18.09 | 6.64 | 11.45 |
| 1994 | 17.7 | 6.49 | 11.21 |
| 1995 | 17.12 | 6.57 | 10.55 |
| 1996 | 16.98 | 6.56 | 10.42 |
| 1997 | 16.57 | 6.51 | 10.06 |
| 1998 | 15.64 | 6.5 | 9.14 |
| 1999 | 14.64 | 6.46 | 8.18 |
| 2000 | 14.03 | 6.45 | 7.58 |
| 2001 | 13.38 | 6.43 | 6.95 |
| 2002 | 12.86 | 6.41 | 6.45 |
| 2003 | 12.41 | 6.4 | 6.01 |
| 2004 | 12.29 | 6.42 | 5.87 |
| 2005 | 12.4 | 6.51 | 5.89 |
| 2006 | 12.09 | 6.81 | 5.28 |
| 2007 | 12.1 | 6.93 | 5.17 |
| 2008 | 12.14 | 7.06 | 5.08 |
| 2009 | 11.95 | 7.08 | 4.87 |
| 2010 | 11.9 | 7.11 | 4.79 |
| 2011 | 13.27 | 7.14 | 6.13 |
| 2012 | 14.57 | 7.13 | 7.43 |
| 2013 | 13.03 | 7.13 | 5.9 |
| 2014 | 13.83 | 7.12 | 6.71 |
| 2015 | 11.99 | 7.07 | 4.93 |
| 2016 | 13.57 | 7.04 | 6.53 |
| 2017 | 12.64 | 7.06 | 5.58 |
| 2018 | 10.86 | 7.08 | 3.78 |
| 2019 | 10.41 | 7.09 | 3.32 |
| 2020 | 8.52 | 7.07 | 1.45 |
| 2021 | 7.52 | 7.18 | 0.34 |
| 2022 | 6.77 | 7.37 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 6.39 | 7.87 | -1.48 |
| 2024 | 6.77 | 7.76 | -0.99 |
Why China's Birth Rate Is Falling
China's demographic crisis is driven by multiple factors: the legacy of the one-child policy (1980-2015), rising cost of living in cities, changing attitudes toward marriage and childbearing among young people, and the high cost of education and housing.
The birth rate peaked at 23.33‰ in 1987 (the “echo baby boom” from parents born before the one-child policy) and has declined steadily since. The two-child policy (2016) and three-child policy (2021) produced only brief, small upticks.
What This Means
With deaths exceeding births since 2022, China's population is now shrinking. The UN projects China's population could fall below 1 billion by 2080. This has profound implications for economic growth, pension systems, labor supply, and global geopolitics.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Statistical Yearbook 2025.